By admin 
PHOENIX (AZFamily) — With the November election quickly approaching, a new poll is providing the first comprehensive look at where Arizona’s key down-ballot races stand.
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A new survey from Noble Predictive Insights shows Democrats holding leads in the races for secretary of state and attorney general, while a prominent Republican holds a narrow lead in the race for superintendent of public instruction. The poll has a margin of error of approximately 3%.
Secretary of state: Fontes leads Kolodin by 6 points
In the race for secretary of state, Democratic incumbent Adrian Fontes leads his Republican opponent, Alexander Kolodin, by 6 percentage points. The poll shows Fontes with the support of 46% of voters compared to Kolodin’s 40%, while 20% of voters remain undecided.
Political consultants from both sides of the aisle say there is still time for the gap to close.
GOP political consultant Marcus Dell’Artino outlined a three-step path for Kolodin to narrow the margin.
“One, you’ve got to get Republicans—registered Republicans—out to vote. You’ve got to maximize that value,” Dell’Artino said. “Two, you’ve got to make some inroads with the independents that are going to turn out in bigger numbers this cycle. And three, and maybe most importantly, you have to bring women on board your campaign. You have to get them motivated and excited to vote for you.”
Democratic political consultant Tony Cani believes the race will ultimately come down to credibility, noting that “most voters aren’t really thinking about the elections beyond governor” at this stage.
Cani added that there is significant room for both candidates to grow, but noted that national party branding will play a heavy role.
“People are looking at the brand of the political parties when they’re making their mind up,” Cani said. “And right now, the brand of the Trump-led Republicans is pretty bad, even in Arizona.”
Attorney general: Mayes holds steady lead in undecided race
A similar dynamic is playing out in the race for attorney general, where incumbent Democratic Kris Mayes holds a 6-point lead over GOP challenger Warren Petersen. Like the secretary of state race, approximately 20% of voters remain undecided.
Cani attributed Mayes’ strength to her crossover appeal among moderate conservative voters.
“Kris Mayes is getting 17% of Republicans to support her, which is fueled by the sort of party-first Republicans and not the MAGA people,” Cani said, adding that Mayes has a “higher ceiling and a lower number of undecideds.”
Dell’Artino noted that Mayes was able to immediately capitalize on her position and launch television advertisements. Petersen, meanwhile, is still recovering from a difficult primary election, according to Dell’Artino.
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“You remember Warren Petersen went through sort of a bruising primary. And so the problem for him is recouping after that bruising primary,” Dell’Artino said, adding, “He’s definitely going to have to get up on TV and start to message himself.”
Superintendent of public instruction: Yee holds narrow lead
The race for superintendent of public instruction is the closest of the three major down-ballot contests. Republican candidate Kimberly Yee holds a narrow 3-point lead over Democratic candidate Teresa Leyba Ruiz.
Consultants say Yee benefits significantly from her high name recognition as Arizona state treasurer. Four years ago, Yee was the top Republican vote-getter on the statewide ballot.
“I think she’s still got a little of that benefit coming through,” Dell’Artino said, adding that the race is a natural point for hesitant conservative voters to return to party lines.
“That’s about the point that the guilt factor for Republicans—if you’re one of those one in 10 or two in 10 Republicans, maybe three in 10 that are questioning the top of the ballot — that’s where you start to come home,” he said.
Cani agreed that Leyba Ruiz faces an uphill battle with name recognition, arguing that “voters don’t know her at all yet, and people are familiar with Yee.”
However, Cani noted that Yee’s past policy stances regarding the Empowerment Scholarship Account (ESA) voucher program could alienate moderate voters. Yee initially ran because she believed current Superintendent Tom Horne was too open to “common sense restrictions” on the program.
“That’s not where voters are,” Cani said. “That likely is going to pull Yee down and provide an opening.”
Down-ballot races set to go down to the wire
While the secretary of state and attorney general races currently show wider margins than the superintendent contest, political consultants from both parties agree all three matchups remain highly competitive.
With weeks left before November, both sides emphasize that independent voters will ultimately decide these critical state offices.
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