By admin 
TUCSON, Ariz. (13 News) – The state has flagged the Tucson Unified School District as high risk, raising questions about what comes next, including possible school closures.
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Pima County Superintendent Dustin Williams said TUSD will more than likely follow other districts that have already closed schools.
“The reality is for me, and what I have observed, is the writing is on the wall and that, yes, this is happening,” Williams said. “TUSD more than likely will follow in some capacity. How many schools, I don’t know.”
Statewide forces driving change
Declining enrollment and lost funding have already forced districts like Amphi to make difficult decisions. Now, those same pressures are building in the TUSD.
Williams said the district is experiencing a paradigm shift that is reshaping where students enroll and how districts respond.
“You’re seeing a massive shift in how education looks going forward,” Williams said.
Charter schools, private schools, and voucher programs are giving parents more options than ever before. At the same time, families are moving away from central urban areas.
“We have seen birthrates stagnant to declining, which means kinder classes are smaller,” Williams said. “Ultimately, as that progresses, if you have too many schools, you don’t have enough students, you’re ultimately going to have to start thinking about consolidating or what is sometimes just closing schools.”
Williams said that’s the pressure districts like Tucson Unified are now facing when their model no longer works. In simple terms, the numbers no longer add up.
Financial reality forces action
TUSD Board member Val Romero pointed to Santa Rita High School, built decades ago for about 2,500 students and now operates far below capacity.
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“To have 330 students there to keep that school open, we’re spending a lot more money to keep that school open than we’re bringing in,” Romero said.
Romero said the school is losing $2 million a year.
“Those are big numbers,” Williams said. “Losing that type of dollars is going to put you on the list of the auditor general.”
Williams said districts often delay those decisions until financial pressure forces action.
Williams said the issue is time-sensitive.
“These are absolutely time issues,” he said. “So this isn’t something you’re going to be able to wait, 3, 5, kick the can down the road and hope those enrollment numbers basically double.”
Impact on communities
For families and staff, those decisions could be painful. Closures at a large scale would reshape entire communities, Williams said.
“We know that impacts families — we know that impacts students,” Williams said.
The most important step right now is communication, he said.
“Best practice is transparency and accountability,” Williams said.
As TUSD leaders weigh their next steps, the biggest question remains how quickly those decisions will come.
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