PHOENIX (AZFamily) — A new poll shows Democratic incumbent Gov. Katie Hobbs leading her Republican challenger, Rep. Andy Biggs, in the race for Arizona governor by double digits, with about two months left until Election Day.
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Hobbs has a 15-point lead over Biggs in a HighGround poll released Monday, polling at 49.5% to 34.3% among likely Arizona voters.
Hobbs also has a whopping lead among independent and unaffiliated voters, a crucial voting bloc in Arizona. About 55% of independent voters back Hobbs, while roughly 19% support Biggs. She also has a wide advantage over Biggs among young voters (58.3% vs 16.7%) and female voters (56.7% vs 28.8%).
The poll shows that Biggs still needs to coalesce the GOP behind him following the July primary. Hobbs has 93% support of Democratic voters, while the Republican congressman has about three-fourths of GOP voters backing him.
About 13% of voters said they haven’t made up their mind as to who they’ll back for governor or declined to name a candidate. Roughly 2% of voters like No Labels Party candidate Teri Ann Hourigan, while less than 1% of voters said they’d support Green Party candidate Risa Lombardo.
The governor’s race is the marquee contest in Arizona this midterm, and early voting begins Oct. 7.
Republicans hope to regain a trifecta in a state that President Donald Trump won in 2024, but a Republican hasn’t been able to win a statewide general election with Trump’s backing since 2018.
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As an incumbent with a money advantage, Hobbs has been able to blanket Arizona’s airwaves with ads, even as she refuses to debate Biggs.
The early spending from Hobbs and her supporters “has taken its toll on framing her opponent” and is “clearly winning the airtime battle,” Paul Bentz, HighGround’s senior vice president of research and strategy, said in a statement.
Bentz noted that “things tend to tighten up as the time to vote draws closer” but that it will be a “tall task” for Biggs to “find a way to not only bolster waning Republican enthusiasm while also communicating with independent and unaffiliated voters about things they care about.”
The poll was conducted from Aug. 15-18 among likely general election voters. The margin of error was +/- 4.9%.
Election 2026
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